HSBC Trade Connections:Trade Forecast Quarterly Update

New quarterly forecast exploring the future of world trade and the opportunities for international businesses
• World trade will grow by 73% in next 15 years
• World trade will grow at 2% until 2015
• Companies to increase trade activity annually by 4.1% to achieve projected growth
• Australia’s trade to grow by 129% by 2025

Global Trade Review 
The new Trade Forecast is predicting that world trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years, with merchandise trade volumes in 2025 hitting US$43.6trillion compared to today’s $27.2trillion. To achieve this growth, the Trade Forecast is predicting that companies across the world will increase their trade activity by a combined 3.9% between 2011 and 2025. The Trade Forecast anticipates that the spotlight will be on Egypt, India, China, Indonesia and Brazil to drive world trade growth during this period.
This is reflected in HSBC’s Trade Confidence Index which reveals that businesses around the world believe that China will continue to be a source of key trading opportunities over the next six months, with Latin America, South East Asia, and the Middle East also featuring strongly. Despite an overall dip in global trade confidence, businesses in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are particularly optimistic about the future, showing a positive uplift in confidence on the first half of 2011. On a global scale, the majority of respondents (84%) anticipate either an increase in international trade, or consistent levels of international business activity, over the next six months. For businesses trading internationally or starting to trade internationally, the combined global outlook provides a positive view of future business opportunities with new trade corridors opening.